The Randow Walk Theory
Any process appears random and unpredictable to those who don’t understand the rules under which the process operates.
The illussion of randomness gradually disappear as the skill in chart reading improves.
Can the Past Be Used to Predict the Future?
As one statistical text puts it, “The fisrt step in forecasting the business or economic future consists,thus,of gathering observations from the past”(Freund and Williams).
Chart analysis is just another form of time series analysis, based on a study of the past, which isĀ exactly what is done in all forms of time series analysis.
So it seems that the use of past price data to predict the future in technical analysis is grounded in sound statistical concepts.
Random Variable
A random variable is an expression whose value is the outcome of a particular experiment and it can take different values.